Market Notes

Eagle, Colorado

I haven’t found a whole heck of a lot to write about over the past few weeks, mostly because the language from my last several posts still applies – and partly because I spent spring break in Florida with my family!

Looking back to my post from January 18th, I suggested that we were in uncharted territory and that markets were more overbought than they had ever been. 6 trading days later, the correction started.

In the post on February 8th, I asked if volatility had returned for good. Since then, we’ve come down from the extremes but the VIX (the market measure of volatility or fear) has remained elevated and today sits at 15.45, still about 5 points below its long-term average closer to 20.

On March 23rd my post discussed additional downside risk, and consolidation around the 200-day averages. We got that downside almost immediately and I followed up with another post on March 26th again suggesting that consolidation around the 200-day averages should take some time if we are to have any confidence in a move higher.

Again on April 10th, we made similar remarks.

So, not to beat a dead horse but – we are right where we left off with the major indexes holding the 200-day averages. Earnings season has been strong but guidance for future quarters has not been “irrationally exuberant” enough to kick-start the rally back into high gear. So, the market continues to look for a catalyst.

For now, we are stuck in a sort of range-bound and directionless market – which can wreak havoc on performance for traders. Long-term investors are much better off riding out these short-term swings and sticking to their long-term investment plan.

We remain bullish with a healthy dose of caution.

Below is a picture from the family vacation – taken in Gramcrackers’ front yard!

The Fam: Gulfport, Florida

Shane Fleury, CIO

Elevate Capital Advisors


Legal Information and Disclosures

This commentary expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice. Elevate Capital Advisors, LLC (“Elevate”) has no duty or obligation to update the information contained herein. This information is being made available for educational purposes only. Certain information contained herein concerning economic trends and performance is based on or derived from information provided by independent third-party sources. Elevate believes that the sources from which such information has been obtained are reliable; however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information and has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such information or the assumptions on which such information is based. This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Elevate. Further, wherever there exists the potential for profit there is also the risk of loss.