Market Notes

April 10, 2018

Eagle, Colorado

I am looking forward to attending the Grant’s Interest Rate Observer Spring Conference today. This event is held twice each year and features the best minds that finance has to offer. I have only attended once before but I took pages of notes and found a few great investments, last fall.

If you are in the neighborhood, feel free to stop by our office today where we will have the conference live-streaming into our conference room. Click here to check out the agenda.


In the overnight hours in the US, Chinese President Xi was speaking at the “Asian Davos” (another conference) and the markets liked what they heard. He spoke about “opening up” China to more foreign investment and relaxing tariffs on autos, specifically. Futures are up over 1% this morning as of this writing, but as we have seen in recent days it only takes one headline (or one tweet) to wipe it all away.

In our last blog I noted that we were expecting to spend some time with prices consolidating at these levels before having any real confidence in a move higher. We were also looking for some elevated volatility levels to persist for some time. So, what we have seen over the past couple of weeks is on par with our expectations and is pretty normal for an old bull market like this one.

We are looking for some direction to start developing this week and perhaps it is already starting with the move this morning. I hesitate to get too excited, yet.

We are still bullish. The 200-day averages have held pretty nicely. Presently, the Nasdaq is trading about 2.6% above its 200-day average, the DOW is 1.9% above its 200-day average and the S&P500 is less than 1% above its 200-day average. All of these technical indicators still suggest that we remain in a long-term uptrend.

Here is a look at the charts of the cash markets for the major indexes. The light blue line is the 200-day average, referenced above.    
  
  
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
 

Here is a look at the charts of the cash markets for the major indexes. The light blue line is the 200-day average, referenced above.

Until we get evidence to the contrary, we will be staying long and looking for opportunities to put cash to work at favorable prices.

 

Shane Fleury, CIO

Elevate Capital Advisors

 

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