The big problem with all the stimulus is that it inflates the respective currencies, making them worth less and making goods and services cost more. The only way to maintain purchasing power is to own assets before the stimulus comes.

Can you imagine what would happen if they had to have rolling blackouts in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia?
It would probably make our riots look like a friendly petting zoo. And we produce more oil in America than they do in Saudi Arabia… think about that for a second.

June was an exceptionally strong month for the Elevate Strategies. Both Appreciation and Income did well overall but what really outperformed were the stock selections in each strategy which far surpassed the returns of the S&P 500 index (SPX) for the month.

This morning the monthly jobs numbers came out and the market loved them. The weekly unemployment reports over the past 4 weeks showed an average of 2.5 Million new unemployment claims per week – 2.5 Million x 4 weeks = 10 Million for the month. But, the monthly numbers (which are subject to revision) came in showing that the economy somehow added 2.5 Million jobs in May.

In a word: nonsense.

Happy Cinco de Mayo! And, it is even Taco Tuesday! Let’s hope that your favorite local authentic taco joint is open for business – go have a few tacos and dare I say, a Corona with lime – hold the virus.

It’s also the day after which rent is late for May – likely the second month of missed payments for many businesses and the normal point at which eviction notice would be given. With any luck, many business owners have received funding from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) which allows for some cash to be used to pay rent. Unfortunately, the program has had its share of issues with distributing cash to those who need it most. This is just one of the many wildcards out there right now.

No matter how you count the cases at the beginning or today let’s just assume that 172 and 312,249 are relatively accurate, or at least scalable. The rate of growth in confirmed infections would be 181,440% in 1 month. These kinds of numbers sell lots of newspapers and many people (whether right or wrong) now fear going outside their homes. They fear interacting on any level with loved ones, let alone strangers. Even those who are not afraid of personally becoming infected and showing symptoms are afraid of carrying the virus and then passing it on to their elders.

This is a “Crisis of Confidence” type situation. And the markets, I fear, have only begun to reflect the reality.

The S&P 500 finished the month of February down 8.41%. This was after posting a loss in January. So, 2020 is not off to a great start – even though there have been more than a couple of new highs posted along the way.

In fact, this recent correction – defined as a 10% pull back from highs – was the fastest in history from an all-time-high. This fact has gotten quite a bit of attention in the media. But not as much as the corona virus, or COVID-19… I have personally received more emails related to this than any other topic in my career. Easily.

All our standard model portfolios finished January with gains. So, I am very pleased to report that. Making money when everyone else is losing is fantastic, and certainly involves some degree of luck. In many respects, I’d rather be lucky than good – but it has also been said that luck is where preparation meets opportunity – and Elevate has prepared well for 2020.

Happy New Year!

With 2019 in the rear-view we look forward to 2020 with great excitement and a healthy dose of caution.

Only 6 days into the year and our country is all but on the brink of a new war in the middle east, this time with Iran directly. The market (so far) seems to not care all that much.

Much has changed in the past several years since we started fracking for oil in the USA. It used to be that when tensions flared in the middle east, the price of crude oil would spike meaningfully higher, but we assassinated the top military figure in Iran and crude went up a whopping [sarcasm implied] three bucks - $3. I suppose to be fair it was up almost $5 at one point. It is hard to believe…

I am pleased with our results for 2019 so far and with a short time left in the calendar year (a completely arbitrary deadline for everyone I know) I am confident that we are appropriately positioned across all our strategies for whatever may come next – not just for the next few weeks but well into the future.             

There have been 5 separate pullbacks of 8% or more since the election. And since January of 2018, 22 months ago, the S&P 500 has risen only 8%.

E-TRADE generated around $5B over the past 3 years in “net interest income” compared

to only $1.3B worth of commissions from executing trades.

How much does “free” cost? And cograts to Jacob Going on his new title!

We’ll start today off with a great big “HAPPY ANNIVERSARY!” to my beautiful and talented wife, Chanelle.

This is #6… of infinity. I look forward to all the rest, but I am most thankful for today! We are totally the couple where strangers look and say “Jeez, how did that happen?”  She’s way out of my league and I am a lucky guy!

August was the second losing month of 2019 for the S&P 500 (SPX) and other major stock indexes. Bonds were the place to be last month. Our portfolios weathered the storm well losing less than 1% on average. Some portfolios with heavy exposure to municipal bonds even pulled off a gain for the month.

Things are cheap in terms of dollars. And as American’s we take this for granted. We expect that when we hop on Amazon.com tomorrow, this item will be roughly the same price - again in terms of dollars. Folks in other countries have no such expectation. We Americans are extremely lucky to own the world’s reserve currency and that there so much demand for our currency.

Next time you are in Denver, I encourage you to stop by the LocalHost Arena in Lakewood (and check out the scene. Pull up a chair and give computer, console, or virtual reality gaming a try. It’s always fun to try new things – and it is super fun to be able to play football with the kids without concern for a bum knee.

Negative interest rates are not a “net-benefit” to the global economy, rather negative interest rates are a travesty of the global economy. The only folks who benefit are the risk-takers who borrow money cheaply (or even get paid to do it) which they will never repay to speculate on ideas, many of which will never pan out. And who loses? The savers. Our parents and grandparents pay for this speculation – and later, so too will our children. Negative interest rates are a symptom of a very bad global economy, not a benefit to the economy. It’d be like calling a cast a benefit of a broken leg. It makes absolutely no sense. And these are the people calling the shots...